You have such good intuitions here. And for the record, I know Carey and I know that she doesn't have some sort of insider knowledge on this matter, so it makes it even more impressive how well you've been able to forecast this entire situation. We really needed a voice like yours in the AI safety community, somebody that actually understands both governmental and regulatory incentives, but also corporate and financial incentives. I am really looking forward to reading similar pieces!!
Also, thank you for the citation, and for making the game theory explicit!
The variable I'd add: Mythos as leverage only holds if Anthropic keeps differentiating. The moment another lab ships a comparable sovereign-ready model, the negotiating position softens. Worth watching whether CISA's testing period produces public validation or quiet silence.
You have such good intuitions here. And for the record, I know Carey and I know that she doesn't have some sort of insider knowledge on this matter, so it makes it even more impressive how well you've been able to forecast this entire situation. We really needed a voice like yours in the AI safety community, somebody that actually understands both governmental and regulatory incentives, but also corporate and financial incentives. I am really looking forward to reading similar pieces!!
This is really a great explanation of the facts.
At the time of the problems with the Pentagon I had something in my mind like "Anthropic will be back".. Here we are :)
Also, thank you for the citation, and for making the game theory explicit!
The variable I'd add: Mythos as leverage only holds if Anthropic keeps differentiating. The moment another lab ships a comparable sovereign-ready model, the negotiating position softens. Worth watching whether CISA's testing period produces public validation or quiet silence.